Monday, September 24, 2018

Busted Forecast

I always wanted to be a weatherman.  Mostly because it seems like one job where you can be wrong a lot and still have a job.  To be fair the aviation forecasters are right most of the time and do an excellent job.  Yesterday they missed it.


I had to fly to Charleston and then on to Myrtle Beach in the morning.  My return was later afternoon over the same route.  Forecast called for some showers over Northern Florida mid day but otherwise, good VFR weather along the route.


On the way North there were some showers and a lot of un-forecast clouds along the coast.  My strategy was to go high and it worked.  Went up to 9,500 and was over all of it.


The Charleston weather said clear so I was pretty sure it would be easy to get back down.  Leaving Charleston I worked my way around some puffy clouds and then some rain showers.  Since the flight was short, going high was not a great option.  The further I went the lower I went.  2,000 was bumpy and hot but the AC fixed one of those.


I had several hours in Myrtle beach and the skies were blue and clear.  The forecast rain never developed in Florida but, South Carolina and Georgia went the wrong direction.  An area of low clouds and rain developed and worsened as the day proceeded.  Heading back to Charleston I flew the coast which was pretty clear but as I approached the airport, it was surrounded by showers.  A bit of maneuvering kept us dry and in the clear.  I dropped some people off and headed home and that's when it got more difficult.


I tried the coast but it had areas of showers.  I headed inland a bit and then pushed back to the coast as it was looking better.   At Hilton Head, I ran up against a wall of clouds that forced me to head down, turn around and head North before finding an area of relatively clear skies.  Actually they were full of clouds but I was able to fly between layers until I made it to Florida where it was once again sunny.  Remember this was the only place that was supposed to have clouds.



I took some video of the clouds, sunny in the morning and then a bit junky later.









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