Go or No Go

 

I took the plane to annual this morning.  I had planned to go yesterday but the weather was less than perfect.  It actually wasn't that bad.  It varied between 1,500' and 800' overcast most of the day.  No ice in the clouds.  Winds were gusty but nothing out of the ordinary.  Approach minimums at my destination were 500' with good visibility below the clouds.  I decided No Go.

If I am being honest, if we were on a trip and this was the weather on our next leg, I would likely have had no issue.  Why did I say no?  It came down to a few factors.  The first was that the weather was flirting with possible lower ceilings.  The trip is only 80ish miles so going down and then coming back is not a big deal except that would create a problem.  I would have a car heading down to pick me. Hence, going home if the clouds got lower would not only waste my time, it would also waste my pick ups time.

I think the biggest thing that drove my decision was that there was a better option, go today.  I have been pondering the Go or No Go decision as of late while working on a safety program for next month where we will discuss flight planning and personal minimums.  This pondering has really brought up why this topic can be so difficult.  Many times there is a lot of gray in making our decisions.  We often discuss the decision as if it is an absolute one time decision.

Sometimes it is.  We had discussed running up to Atlanta Sunday to see family but by Sunday morning the answer was simple, NO.  There was significant large areas of convection and low ceilings.  Was not gonna happen.  That's an easy call.  On our trips I have been pleasantly surprised how often the weather has cooperated.  No, not the time we went to Santa Fe and got way too much rain but usually.  I do have a trick though, I cheat.

With our current forecasting technology we have been able to cancel trip days before it becomes an immediate decision.  We also have shifted our flights a day here and there.  Your weather picture looks a lot different if you expand from now to plus/minus 24 hours.

So was it worth the wait.  Heck yeah, the mechanic wasn't getting to my plane yesterday or today so it was an extra night in the hangar.  The weather was 4,000' overcast at both ends today but clear in the middle.  Overcast was technically correct but it wasn't much of an obstacle.  I filed for 6,000' and departing, I was given 3,000' and a right turn to 100 degrees.  Checking in I got 6,000' and 140 degrees. Passing 4,000' I was direct.  

That cloud deck was really thin and other than adjusting the visor to keep the sun out of my eyes, all was good.  Enroute it was actually clear for a while.  Daytona took me just West of DAB and I did dip through the layer again but it was also thin.  I picked up the airport 20 miles out and had a nice easy approach to runway 7 which ends at the Mechanic.

Plane is now waiting her turn to get inspected and I am planning my annual Donut event.  In the end I was very happy with my No Go or in this case really Go in 24 hours.